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Ubuntu 的人气在下降?纯属扯淡!

最近就像多米诺骨牌一样,网络上关于Ubuntu的市场份额在下降、Ubuntu被它的近亲Linux Mint所超越的文章铺天盖地。散发此虚假消息包括这些国外著名科技博客The Register, ZDNet, PCWorld。这些文章大多都把责任归咎于Unity,而数据来源皆来自distrowatch.com

更滑稽的是,竟有人声称Ubuntu 自Mark Shuttleworth 在2004 年创立Ubuntu以来,Ubuntu的市场份额一直在下降,它给出的图表如下:

Ubuntu 的人气在下降?

它的主要(唯一)数据来源来自于distrowatch.com。

Ubuntu 的人气在下降?你在扯蛋吧。Linux News 将从以下几点分析,观点来自于omgubuntu:

distrowatch.com并不是准确的Linux 发行版流行度衡量方法

当一个发行版变为一个主流的Linux发行版,如ubuntu,Ubuntu DistroWatch主页的访问量并不会按ubuntu的实际用户数据比例增长。因为一般人并不会访问DistroWatch,还有可能他们都还没有听说过DistroWatch。通过上面滑稽的图表数据,你应该赞成当一个发行版是主流的Linux发行,DistroWatch的统计数据将没有意义。

其他衡量Linux 发行版流行度的方法

那么既然DistroWatch的方法不准确,那么如何知道相对的Linux 发行版流行度呢?事实上,它是相当困难的。或许最好的方法是看一下Facebook上各发行版主页。Facebook上Ubuntu已经超过500000粉丝,而Linux Mint只有14000。同样的方法,你可以看下Google+和Twitter发行版主页。

另外Google Trends也显示Ubuntu 明显领先

Ubuntu 的人气在下降?

另外DistroWatch也公布了distrowatch.com首页的访问情况,Ubuntu来明显领先。

Ubuntu 的人气在下降?

还有一种方法就是查看一下wikimedia的统计数据,Ubuntu的数据也是遥遥领先。

Ubuntu 的人气在下降?

附:下表为 Google Trends 2011年详细报表!

ubuntuubuntu (std error)Fedorafedora (std error)linux mintlinux mint (std error)open suseopen suse (std error) 
545%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
 
Weekubuntuubuntu (std error)fedorafedora (std error)linux mintlinux mint (std error)open suseopen suse (std error)
Jan 2 2011625%65%210%0.5>10% 
Jan 9 2011615%65%210%0.5>10% 
Jan 16 2011605%65%210%0.5>10% 
Jan 23 2011615%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
Jan 30 2011665%65%210%0.5>10% 
Feb 6 201162.55%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
Feb 13 201162.55%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
Feb 20 2011605%65%210%0.5>10% 
Feb 27 2011605%65%210%0.5>10% 
Mar 6 2011635%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
Mar 13 201158.55%65%1.5>10%0.5>10% 
Mar 20 2011635%65%210%0.5>10% 
Mar 27 201162.55%65%1.5>10%0.5>10% 
Apr 3 201165.55%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
Apr 10 201164.55%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
Apr 17 2011645%75%210%0.5>10% 
Apr 24 201183.55%75%210%0.5>10% 
May 1 2011835%75%2.510%0.5>10% 
May 8 201169.55%75%2.510%0.5>10% 
May 15 2011645%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
May 22 2011625%10.55%2.510%0.5>10% 
May 29 2011625%95%2.510%0.5>10% 
Jun 5 201157.55%75%210%0.5>10% 
Jun 12 2011585%75%210%0.5>10% 
Jun 19 2011565%75%210%0.5>10% 
Jun 26 201153.55%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
Jul 3 2011535%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
Jul 10 201151.55%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
Jul 17 2011545%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
Jul 24 2011525%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
Jul 31 201152.55%6.55%210%0.5>10% 
Aug 7 2011525%65%210%0.5>10% 
Aug 14 2011535%65%210%0.5>10% 
Aug 21 2011535%65%210%0.5>10% 
Aug 28 201152.55%65%210%0.5>10% 
Sep 4 2011525%65%210%0.5>10% 
Sep 11 201153.55%65%210%0.5>10% 
Sep 18 2011525%65%210%0.5>10% 
Sep 25 201152.55%65%210%0.5>10% 
Oct 2 2011555%65%210%0.5>10% 
Oct 9 201171.55%65%210%0.5>10% 
Oct 16 2011745%6.55%2.510%0.5>10% 
Oct 23 2011635%65%2.510%0.5>10% 
Oct 30 2011595%65%2.510%0.5>10% 
Nov 6 2011575%8.55%3.510%0.5>10% 
Nov 13 201152.55%75%310%0.5>10% 
Nov 20 20110>10%0>10%0>10%0>10% 
Nov 27 20110>10%0>10%0>10%0>10% 
Dec 4 20110>10%0>10%0>10%0>10% 
Dec 11 20110>10%0>10%0>10%0>10% 
Dec 18 20110>10%0>10%0>10%0>10% 
Dec 25 20110>10%0>10%0>10%0>10% 
 
Regionubuntuubuntu (std error)fedorafedora (std error)linux mintlinux mint (std error)open suseopen suse (std error)
Russian Federation10%0.0653%0.0355%0.005>10% 
Italy0.742%0.045%0.0210%0.005>10% 
Czech Republic0.712%0.113%0.03510%0.01>10% 
Spain0.652%0.0310%0.0210%0.005>10% 
Ukraine0.642%0.0455%0.02510%0.005>10% 
Indonesia0.6152%0.055%0.02510%0.005>10% 
Germany0.6052%0.0310%0.02510%0.01>10% 
Finland0.572%0.055%0.0310%0.005>10% 
Taiwan0.5652%0.0953%0.01>10%0>10% 
India0.542%0.13%0.01510%0.005>10% 
 
Cityubuntuubuntu (std error)fedorafedora (std error)linux mintlinux mint (std error)open suseopen suse (std error)
Beijing (China)10%0.153%0.01>10%0>10% 
Moscow (Russian Federation)0.9652%0.093%0.03510%0.005>10% 
Bangalore (India)0.7352%0.1453%0.0210%0.01>10% 
Milan (Italy)0.582%0.0455%0.0210%0.005>10% 
Rome (Italy)0.572%0.045%0.015>10%0>10% 
Berlin (Germany)0.542%0.0355%0.02510%0.01>10% 
Barcelona (Spain)0.532%0.03510%0.015>10%0.005>10% 
Madrid (Spain)0.512%0.0355%0.015>10%0.005>10% 
Jakarta (Indonesia)0.4952%0.055%0.0210%0.005>10% 
Mexico City (Mexico)0.452%0.0655%0.0210%0.005>10% 
 
Languageubuntuubuntu (std error)fedorafedora (std error)linux mintlinux mint (std error)open suseopen suse (std error)
Russian10%0.065%0.0355%0.005>10% 
Italian0.9052%0.055%0.02510%0.005>10% 
Indonesian0.7252%0.0653%0.0310%0.01>10% 
German0.7252%0.045%0.0310%0.01>10% 
Spanish0.672%0.0455%0.0210%0.005>10% 
Chinese0.662%0.0953%0.005>10%0>10% 
English0.5952%0.0853%0.0210%0.005>10% 
French0.5452%0.045%0.01>10%0>10% 
Finnish0.5252%0.055%0.0310%0.005>10% 
Hungarian0.5252%0.045%0.0310%0.005>10% 
           

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